Schumer Eyes Expanded Senate Majority Despite Challenging Map

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) issued a bullish assessment of Democrats’ chances of retaining control of the Senate in November. Schumer told reporters: “Everyone knows unity is the most important thing for us, and to avoid internecine fights... I stand by what I’ve been saying — and that is, we will keep the Senate, we may pick up a seat or two.”

• The prevailing view among analysts is that an unfavourable map for Democrats is likely to lead to a GOP win. Republican Jim Justice (R-WV) is certain to win the West Virginia seat of outgoing Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), leaving Democrats with a raft of must-win seats, including two in red states that will require split-ticket voting – Ohio and Montana.
• Assuming Democrats hold Ohio and Montana, they would also need to sweep the other swing states seats and win the White House to give Tim Walz (D-MN) the tie-breaking Senate vote.
• To retain the Senate without winning the White House, Democrats would need to flip either the Florida seat of Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) or the Texas seat of Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) – the only two feasible pickup opportunities of the cycle.
• Schumer also noted this week that if Democrats swept the White House and Congress, he would target sidestepping the Senate filibuster to legislate key Democrat priorities on voter rights and reproductive rights, a move that could potentially weaken the Senate in future administrations.