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Scotia Above Consensus For Canadian CPI

CANADA
  • Scotiabank are at the top of consensus for CPI on Wed, eyeing an increase from 6.9% to 7.4% Y/Y for headline – survey responses range from 6.3-7.4 with a median 7.0.
  • This comes from a 1.2% M/M NSA or 1.0% SA increase, with downside caution in light of softer-than-expected US CPI but with important idiosyncratic differences including a deeper state of excess demand, CAD weakness adding to import price pressures and smaller housing influence from measurement influences.
  • Within this forecast, they also see traditional core CPI rising 0.7% M/M SA with the Y/Y pushed above 6%.

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