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Scotia Revise Terminal To 4.25%, There For Much Of 2023

CANADA
  • Scotiabank forecast a terminal policy rate of 4.25% by year-end and kept there for much of 2023, i.e. 100bp of hikes vs prior terminal 3.75%. It’s part of a forecast round that pushes the Fed terminal to 5% by early 2023.
  • Higher terminal “reflects in equal measure the fiscal support measures being rolled out domestically, as well as the impact of a rapidly depreciating CAD”
  • Comfort taken from "some signs that inflation is moderating in Canada, in contrast to the US”. Inflation seen averaging 6.9% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023 before mild undershoot of 2% target in 2H24.
  • Could be technical recession in Canada but essentially a stalling in 1H23 with decline short-lived due to underlying resilience of economy.
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