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Scotia Sees Stage Set For 25bp Hike From BoC

CANADA
  • Scotia Economics expects a 25bps rate hike at tomorrow's meeting accompanied by continued guidance that leaves the door open to further tightening by largely retaining something either identical or very similar to the final paragraph’s guidance in recent statements.
  • If the BoC does not hike this week, then the effect of hawkish guidance on the front-end of the Canada rates curve is likely to be tantamount to a hike as an imperfect substitute toward buying time into July.
  • The BoC has been fairly clear that its conditional hold since January relied upon developments conforming to its expectations. That clearly has not been the case and the BoC faces no need to have to further set up a hike this week.
  • If markets haven’t gotten the memo by now, then another month spent hammering away at the same themes won’t matter. This is also why the decision does not need to be delivered by the Governor himself since he has basically already primed the path in advance.
  • Decisive action should have already been delivered, but further delay until July only to disappear for August holidays would lose precious time to send a concrete message.
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