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Scotiabank Expect USDMXN To Remain At Current Levels Below 18.00

MEXICO
  • Regarding the implications on monetary policy, Scotiabank’s expectation is that the cutting cycle will begin at the end of the year. Thus, the debate will revolve around the month in which the cutting cycle would start (some analysts anticipate a cut as early as September).
  • As for the exchange rate, MXN appreciated this week to levels last seen in 2016, and we expect it to remain at current levels (below $18.0), supported by the rate differential (600 bps), and the US dollar weakness observed throughout the year.
  • However, Scotiabank reiterate a still uncertain outlook, particularly regarding the core component of inflation, as upcoming decisions will remain dependent on incoming data on inflation dynamics, along with international financial developments, such as the US debt ceiling and banking system tensions.

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