MNI BRIEF: ISM Expects Sluggish Growth, Sticky Services Prices

MNI BRIEF: German Infl In Line With EA, Growth Lags - GCEE

MNI BRIEF: Focus Support For Cutting-Edge Tech - Ministry

MNI BRIEF: EU Won't Necessarily Follow US on Tariffs-Gentiloni

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, May 15

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY125 Bln 1Y MLF Weds; Rates Unchanged

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Spain, France Auction on Thursday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -2.51M TO 457.0M MAY 10 WK

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Scottish FM To Fight VoNC; Political Instability Could Bolster Labour

UK
Homepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsPolitical Market News

First Minister Humza Yousaf has stated that he intends to remain in office and fight any upcoming no confidence vote in his leadership. The vote comes after Yousaf dissolved the coalition agreement between his pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and the environmentalist Greens, meaning his administation now sits as a minority gov't.

  • Yousaf says he will write to all party leaders to explain how he intends to govern as a minorty administration. Claims that he is 'Very confident that we will be able to win the no confidence vote.'
  • There has been speculation that Yousaf could resign. The Greens have said they will vote against Yousaf, with their reaction being seen as a major miscalculation on the first minister's part.
  • The political instability in Scotland is unlikely to have any immediate market-moving impact. However, a collapse of the Scottish gov't (should the VoNC pass and no new FM be appointed in 28 days snap elections are called) could dent support for the SNP in the upcoming UK general election. Opinion polling shows the SNP and centre-left Labour party neck-and-neck.
  • Betting market expectations show an 87% implied probability of a Labour majority post-election. However, winning back Scottish seats (an historic stronghold for Labour pre-2015) is seen as key for providing Labour with not just a comfortbale but a significant Commons majority.
  • The latter could enable party leader Sir Keir Starmer significant freedom in policy creation. Announcements of planned rail nationalisation should Labour win has raised the prospect of further nationalisations (notably water) under a Labour gov't.
255 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

First Minister Humza Yousaf has stated that he intends to remain in office and fight any upcoming no confidence vote in his leadership. The vote comes after Yousaf dissolved the coalition agreement between his pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and the environmentalist Greens, meaning his administation now sits as a minority gov't.

  • Yousaf says he will write to all party leaders to explain how he intends to govern as a minorty administration. Claims that he is 'Very confident that we will be able to win the no confidence vote.'
  • There has been speculation that Yousaf could resign. The Greens have said they will vote against Yousaf, with their reaction being seen as a major miscalculation on the first minister's part.
  • The political instability in Scotland is unlikely to have any immediate market-moving impact. However, a collapse of the Scottish gov't (should the VoNC pass and no new FM be appointed in 28 days snap elections are called) could dent support for the SNP in the upcoming UK general election. Opinion polling shows the SNP and centre-left Labour party neck-and-neck.
  • Betting market expectations show an 87% implied probability of a Labour majority post-election. However, winning back Scottish seats (an historic stronghold for Labour pre-2015) is seen as key for providing Labour with not just a comfortbale but a significant Commons majority.
  • The latter could enable party leader Sir Keir Starmer significant freedom in policy creation. Announcements of planned rail nationalisation should Labour win has raised the prospect of further nationalisations (notably water) under a Labour gov't.