Scottish FM To Fight VoNC; Political Instability Could Bolster Labour

First Minister Humza Yousaf has stated that he intends to remain in office and fight any upcoming no confidence vote in his leadership. The vote comes after Yousaf dissolved the coalition agreement between his pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and the environmentalist Greens, meaning his administation now sits as a minority gov't.

• Yousaf says he will write to all party leaders to explain how he intends to govern as a minorty administration. Claims that he is 'Very confident that we will be able to win the no confidence vote.'
• There has been speculation that Yousaf could resign. The Greens have said they will vote against Yousaf, with their reaction being seen as a major miscalculation on the first minister's part.
• The political instability in Scotland is unlikely to have any immediate market-moving impact. However, a collapse of the Scottish gov't (should the VoNC pass and no new FM be appointed in 28 days snap elections are called) could dent support for the SNP in the upcoming UK general election. Opinion polling shows the SNP and centre-left Labour party neck-and-neck.
• Betting market expectations show an 87% implied probability of a Labour majority post-election. However, winning back Scottish seats (an historic stronghold for Labour pre-2015) is seen as key for providing Labour with not just a comfortbale but a significant Commons majority.
• The latter could enable party leader Sir Keir Starmer significant freedom in policy creation. Announcements of planned rail nationalisation should Labour win has raised the prospect of further nationalisations (notably water) under a Labour gov't.