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Select Analyst Estimates For CPI Inflation

CANADA

TD in line with consensus but CIBC and Scotia both looking for modest downside surprise.

  • TD: Headline seen slowing to 6.4% Y/Y in Dec (-0.4pp) as a sharp drop in energy prices drives -0.5% M/M. Clothing will also weigh on the headline print, while food prices, rents, and mortgage interest provide a source of strength. CPI-trim/median projected to edge lower to 5.1% Y/Y from record highs.
  • CIBC: A sharp decline in gasoline prices will be the main factor behind an expected -0.6% M/M drop in headline CPI and 6.3% Y/Y (-0.5pp). With inflation in food and other goods prices expected to ease shortly, and services inflation starting to decelerate as the economy slows, we should see much more muted inflationary pressures by early summer.
  • Scotia: Expecting headline -0.7% M/M, or -0.4% M/M in SA terms, and at 6.2% Y/Y (-0.6pp) for the softest since Feb. Traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) is likely to prove firmer, potentially with a mild up-tick in M/M terms and a slight cooling from 5.4% Y/Y.
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