Sell-Side Desks Revise 2023 Growth Expectations After Flash Q1 GDP Data

The following lists revisions to Poland's GDP growth forecasts for the full 2023 by major local sell-side desks after the release of strong preliminary Q1 data yesterday, with most noting that they see a reduced risk of NBP interest-rate cuts this year:

• PKO: they still expect GDP to increase +0.1% Y/Y this year, but acknowledge that risks to the growth outlook have shifted to the upside; they note that Q1 has the smallest contribution to full-year growth
• ING: if a "credit bomb" does not fall on the U.S. and Europe, GDP could grow above +1.0% Y/Y (+1.5%-2.0% Y/Y) versus a previous expectation of +0.5% Y/Y
• Bank Pocztowy: they expect that a strong Q1 reading will boost full-year growth to around +0.7% Y/Y
• Alior: the risks to their +0.1% Y/Y forecast have shifted to the upside, but they will wait with any revisions until final GDP data due May 31
  
• BOS: they stick to their call for +1.0% Y/Y growth, with risks skewed to the upside; they may review their call after assessing final Q1 data
• Millennium: Q1 GDP data provide arguments for raising their +0.7% Y/Y forecast for full 2023, but any revision should be "cautious"
  
• Santander: their +0.7% Y/Y forecast for the full 2023 will likely shift towards +1.0% Y/Y, depending on final Q1 data
  
• mBank: they now expect GDP growth of "close to +2.0% Y/Y" this year (prev. +0.3%)