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Sell-Side Reactions To CPI Report

CANADA
  • BMO: Inflation is spreading much more broadly and at clear risk of getting firmly entrenched. Barring a deep dive in oil prices in coming weeks and months, we expect that the worst is yet to come on the headline readings, and that inflation north of 6% will still be with us by the end of this year.
  • CIBC: Inflation is pushing further above the Bank's forecasts, virtually guaranteeing another 50bp hike in June, which could well be followed by another outsized move to the bottom of the 2-3% neutral range. However, signs of slowing in the domestic economy and home-grown inflationary pressures should slow the pace of hikes and we still don’t expect rates to exceed 2.5%.
  • RBC: Outside of food & energy, inflation held at 4.6% Y/Y. Home-owning related expenses still ticked up but are set to peak before slowing in coming months. RBC see another 50bp hike in Jun but expect to see cooler price pressures as the year progresses.
  • TD: Unlikely much reprieve from high inflation going forward and even though declining house prices will help, it’ll be offset by a continuation of rent increases and rising mortgage interest costs. The report reinforced TD’s view that the Bank will hike by another 50bps in Jun and Jul.

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