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SEP Suggests Inflation To Moderate Amid "Flattener" Dot Plot

FED

With the usual caveat that the SEP is not a central Fed forecast, the descending path of core PCE inflation to 2.1% by 2024, combined with the "flattener" dot plot, suggests that the story is one of FOMC participants expecting front-loaded hikes being sufficient to stave off inflationary pressures. That's without having to even get close to the long-run rate.

  • Will expect Powell to field questions along these lines, and while it's a little early perhaps, whether or not balance sheet reduction at some point along the hiking path has anything to do with this narrative - or whether their own forecast of negative real policy rates along the horizon is implied to be enough.
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