Sept Flash Inflation Looks To Be Lower Than Had Been Expected

Country-level inflation readings today point to a lower Eurozone flash September reading Friday than had been anticipated coming into the week.

• To recap: Spanish HICP came in at 0.6% M/M as expected but Y/Y was 3.2% vs 3.3% in the BBG median; German HICP was 0.2% M/M vs 0.3% expected, and 4.3% vs 4.5% expected; and Belgium saw a very soft HICP print of just 0.7% Y/Y (no consensus median, but 2.4% prior).
• We have 44% of the Eurozone HICP basket reporting already - when including the median expected Y/Y readings for tomorrow's majors (France at 5.9%, Italy 5.4%, Netherlands 0.3%), overall HICP looks to come in at 4.3-4.4% Y/Y. That compares to the current median of 4.5% Y/Y.
• What little data we have so far - much of which comes from the CPI vs HICP data - points to Core coming in at or below the 4.8% Y/Y expected coming into the week.
• After today's data Morgan Stanley largely concurs with that assessment: "Country-level inflation prints point to 10bp downside risk to our original call for euro area HICP at 4.6%Y (i.e., 4.5%Y) and core HICP at 4.9%Y (i.e., 4.8%Y) in September." (MNI: note that Germany and Belgium surprised them to the downside, but Spain to the upside.)