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Sept Hike Odds Near 75bp On Mann's Speech, GBP Steady

BOE

BoE external member Catherine Mann's speech (text here from the BoE) doesn't contain much in the way of surprises - we knew coming into today based on previous comments she had favoured going fast and hard in frontloading rates to keep inflation expectations under control.

  • And while she didn't explicitly give anything away on her preference for the September MPC's hike size, her comments that "acting more forcefully now, to ensure that the drift [in medium-term inflation expectations] does not become the norm" has helped September BoE pricing tick up to a new high of 72bp (before fading, see chart).
  • However, there are only smaller changes further down the futures strip, in keeping with the front-loaded approach of Mann's speech. And Sterling has remained virtually unchanged vs EUR and USD.
  • More to come Wednesday with the Treasury Select Committee of Bailey, Pill, Mann and Tenreyro (with the annual reports of Mann and Tenreyro due to be released too). This will be the last scheduled appearance of MPC members ahead of next week's meeting and monetary policy decision.

Sept 2022 BoE Hike Size Pricing, ppSource: BBG, MNI

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