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September Retail Sales Due, Barclays Conference on 2024 Outlook

MEXICO
  • Mexican retail sales rising this year as higher employment and salaries boost household incomes and consumption. Increased consumer sentiment may also provide a lift, alongside MXN appreciation and an improving inflation outlook. Tight monetary conditions and a spending shift from goods into services may provide headwinds to the data which is due at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Sept. Retail Sales M/m, est. 0.4%, prior -0.4%
    • Sept. Retail Sales Y/y, est. 3.7%, prior 3.2%
  • In the latest Citi survey of economists, inflation forecasts for both year-end 2023 and 2024 were held steady at 4.60% and 4.00% respectively. Monetary easing is expected to begin in March next year, with a 25bp rate cut. Today, Barclays chief Latin American economist is scheduled to hold a media conference on Mexico’s 2024 outlook.
  • A record year for Mexico’s bond market will spill over into 2024 as companies ramp up spending ahead of the nation’s presidential election, according to the head of Banco Santander.
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