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September Retail Sales, Net Government Debt Rises to 60.0% of GDP

BRAZIL
  • September retail sales will be seen as a fresh gauge of country’s economic strength. Itaú have noted there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the broad index estimates given that a new activity (wholesales specialized in food) was added in the new methodology and only 20 observations are available. Furthermore, Itaú say it is also important to take a closer look at the year-over-year estimates for the PMC Broad index, as the seasonal adjustment has been presenting high instability. Data is due at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • September Retail Sales M/m (estimate 0.0%, prior -0.2%)
    • September Retail Sales Y/y (estimate 2.5%, prior 2.3%)
    • September Broad Retail Sales M/m (estimate 0.0%, prior -1.3%)
    • September Broad Retail Sales Y/y (estimate 2.7%, prior 3.6%)
  • Earlier the Government released its September fiscal results. September data showed the Primary Budget Deficit at BRL18.1b; Est. +BRL11.2b and net debt to GDP 60%; est. 59.8%. Traders remain more focused on monitoring the debates about the change in the 2024 fiscal target.
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