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​SGD Outperforms On Sticky Core Inflation, BoT Still To Come

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mixed, with China and HK holidays still likely impacting liquidity to a degree. SGD has outperformed post domestic inflation data. Still to come is the BoT decision, with +25bps expected. Tomorrow, South Korea Q4 GDP prints, along with consumer confidence. Philippines Q4 GDP is also out, along with Singapore IP figures.

  • USD/SGD has tracked lower, back to 1.3155, -0.30% for the session. We sit slightly higher now. SGD FX outperformed and saw fresh downside post the CPI prints for Dec. Headline was 6.5% y/y, below 6.6% expected, but core remained unchanged at 5.1% y/y (5.0% expected). The SGD NEER, per Goldman Sachs estimates, got close to Nov highs from last year, around 136.00, but has drifted a little lower since.
  • 1 month USD/KRW hasn't drifted too far from the 1231/33 region. Onshore equities are higher, while net equity flows have surged close to $500mn. However, this largely reflects catch up from the previous few days where onshore markets were closed.
  • USD/THB has firmed slightly, last around 32.82, with an early move towards 32.70 finding USD support. We may continue to consolidate ahead of the BoT decision later, where +25bps is expected (see our full preview here). In terms of ranges, the Monday YTD low came in around 32.57, while moves above 33.00 drew selling interest through mid-January.
  • USD/PHP spiked higher at the open, getting close to 54.78, but has drifted lower since. The pair was last around 54.64, still +0.35% above yesterday's closing level. The pair remains very much within recent ranges, with breaks sub 54.50 unable to be sustained in recent weeks, but moves up to 55.00 should still draw selling interest. Q4 GDP prints tomorrow, the consensus looks for a slowdown to 6.6% y/y from 7.6%, but Finance Secretary Diokno said at the start of the week that the economy likely grew more than 7.5% in Q4 from a year earlier.
  • USD/IDR has rebounded, last near 14965, +0.50% for the session. Technical factors could be in play, given the sharp correction lower in recent days flashed oversold conditions on some indicators. USD/INR was lower in the first of trade, but a move sub 81.50 generated USD demand, the pair last at 81.65.
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USD/Asia pairs are mixed, with China and HK holidays still likely impacting liquidity to a degree. SGD has outperformed post domestic inflation data. Still to come is the BoT decision, with +25bps expected. Tomorrow, South Korea Q4 GDP prints, along with consumer confidence. Philippines Q4 GDP is also out, along with Singapore IP figures.

  • USD/SGD has tracked lower, back to 1.3155, -0.30% for the session. We sit slightly higher now. SGD FX outperformed and saw fresh downside post the CPI prints for Dec. Headline was 6.5% y/y, below 6.6% expected, but core remained unchanged at 5.1% y/y (5.0% expected). The SGD NEER, per Goldman Sachs estimates, got close to Nov highs from last year, around 136.00, but has drifted a little lower since.
  • 1 month USD/KRW hasn't drifted too far from the 1231/33 region. Onshore equities are higher, while net equity flows have surged close to $500mn. However, this largely reflects catch up from the previous few days where onshore markets were closed.
  • USD/THB has firmed slightly, last around 32.82, with an early move towards 32.70 finding USD support. We may continue to consolidate ahead of the BoT decision later, where +25bps is expected (see our full preview here). In terms of ranges, the Monday YTD low came in around 32.57, while moves above 33.00 drew selling interest through mid-January.
  • USD/PHP spiked higher at the open, getting close to 54.78, but has drifted lower since. The pair was last around 54.64, still +0.35% above yesterday's closing level. The pair remains very much within recent ranges, with breaks sub 54.50 unable to be sustained in recent weeks, but moves up to 55.00 should still draw selling interest. Q4 GDP prints tomorrow, the consensus looks for a slowdown to 6.6% y/y from 7.6%, but Finance Secretary Diokno said at the start of the week that the economy likely grew more than 7.5% in Q4 from a year earlier.
  • USD/IDR has rebounded, last near 14965, +0.50% for the session. Technical factors could be in play, given the sharp correction lower in recent days flashed oversold conditions on some indicators. USD/INR was lower in the first of trade, but a move sub 81.50 generated USD demand, the pair last at 81.65.