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Shift in Asian Crude And Product Flows Expected in 2023

OIL

Asian oil markets are likely to see a shift in trade flows next year with increasing Russian imports and African and US crudes increasingly diverted to Europe according to S&P Global.

  • Asian oil product exports are likely to help replace supply to countries impacted by a drop in Russian products following the introduction of the EU ban from 5 Feb.
  • China's covid policy is the biggest uncertainty that will determine the rate of recovery in Asian oil demand, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
  • "The new year will be a dramatic one for Asian oil markets. From increased diversions of Russian crude to Asia to the increasing need of oil products by Europe from around the world including Asia," said Kang Wu, head of global oil demand and Asia Analytics at S&P Global.
  • Asia might take up only half of the 1mbpd of seaborne crude volumes that used to go to Europe before sanctions.
  • India imports from Russia have increase from less than 1% before the Ukraine conflict up to a 21% market share in October.
  • China imports from Russian have increase from 15.5% in the 2021 to 17.4% in the January-October period.

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