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Shop Price Growth Lowest Since Dec 2021, With Both Non-Food and Food Softening

UK DATA
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BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price inflation slowed to +1.3% Y/Y in March (vs +2.5% Y/Y prior), whilst Shop Price inflation fell on a monthly basis by 0.4% M/M (vs +0.4% M/M growth in February).

  • There is a clear trend of disinflation continuing, driven by the Food component falling for the eleventh consecutive month to +3.7% Y/Y (vs +5.0% Y/Y prior) - the lowest rate since April 2022.
  • In addition to this, despite concerns about the non-food inflation component stalling, the pace of disinflation has once again picked up to +0.2% Y/Y in March (vs +1.3% Y/Y prior), the lowest level since December 2021.
  • The graph below displays the disinflation trend for both the BRC and ONS series across both food and nonfood. This month's downward moves in the BRC data show little sign of slowing, suggesting the official ONS NEIG inflation rate is likely to continue falling.
  • The Chief Executive of the BRC highlights despite "high global cocoa and sugar prices...retailers compete fiercely to bring prices down", which has continued to weigh on the overall index. However, they also cautioned that the "largest rise to the National Living Wage on record...could put progress on bring down inflation at risk."
  • The BOE MPC will again welcome the progress this data displays, although will be keeping an eye on upcoming Q1 and April wage data and services inflation.


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BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price inflation slowed to +1.3% Y/Y in March (vs +2.5% Y/Y prior), whilst Shop Price inflation fell on a monthly basis by 0.4% M/M (vs +0.4% M/M growth in February).

  • There is a clear trend of disinflation continuing, driven by the Food component falling for the eleventh consecutive month to +3.7% Y/Y (vs +5.0% Y/Y prior) - the lowest rate since April 2022.
  • In addition to this, despite concerns about the non-food inflation component stalling, the pace of disinflation has once again picked up to +0.2% Y/Y in March (vs +1.3% Y/Y prior), the lowest level since December 2021.
  • The graph below displays the disinflation trend for both the BRC and ONS series across both food and nonfood. This month's downward moves in the BRC data show little sign of slowing, suggesting the official ONS NEIG inflation rate is likely to continue falling.
  • The Chief Executive of the BRC highlights despite "high global cocoa and sugar prices...retailers compete fiercely to bring prices down", which has continued to weigh on the overall index. However, they also cautioned that the "largest rise to the National Living Wage on record...could put progress on bring down inflation at risk."
  • The BOE MPC will again welcome the progress this data displays, although will be keeping an eye on upcoming Q1 and April wage data and services inflation.