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Sizeable Moderation In Breadth Of Inflationary Pressures In October

  • Lodging away from home may have played a large role in pushing core CPI and especially supercore CPI lower in October, but there has nevertheless been a reasonable moderation in the breadth of inflation.
  • Our measure covering 57 items across the entire CPI basket shows a reversal of the intensification of pressures seen over the past couple months, although these figures can be volatile from month-to-month.
  • The share of items seeing 3% annualized or larger gains on the month fell from 54% to 42% (2019 av 41%) to take it back just above the 39-40% seen early in the summer before accelerating.
  • Similarly, the share seeing 5% annualized or larger gains fell from 42% to 30% (2019 av 25%) for its lowest since June.
  • The share seeing outright deflation increased from 32% to 40% (2019av 38%), back closer to the 42% it topped out in May.

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