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Sizeable Trimming Of BoC Hike Expectations

CANADA
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS has seen a second session of sizeable paring of hiking expectations, following on from Friday’s drop after US and Canada jobs reports.
  • It currently shows +7bp for next month’s decision with a terminal now seen in October with +13.5bp. That compares with +10bp for Sept and +21bp for a terminal in Dec from Thursday’s close.
  • BAX futures meanwhile are off highs from early in the session but still see an increasingly large rally out the curve building to +0.05 for the Dec’24 which puts the BAU3/Z4 spread at -85bps for its most inverted since Jul 21.
  • Tomorrow sees CAD building permits before likely spillover from US CPI on Thu, but the next major domestic focus will be CAD CPI next Tue for the last CPI report before the BoC decision.

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