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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Chris Curtis at opinion pollster Opinium tweets some of his latest views on the decline in support for PM Boris Johnson's Conservative Party:
- "...we now have enough polling to be confident there has been a shift. Opinium - 1 pt Tory lead. from 5 pts, YouGov - 1 pt Tory lead, from 6 pts, R&W- 1 pt Tory lead, from 5 pts, Ipsos - 1 pt Labour lead, from 3 pts tory lead. Exception is Deltapoll - 3pt Tory lead, from 1 pt."
- "We also know the latest stories have also had an impact on the views of the Tories and the PM: % who think Boris Johnson is…Clean and honest 22% (-8), Corrupt 47% (+5); % who think the Conservative Party is…Clean and honest 22% (-6), Corrupt 48% (+7), (Changes on April)."
- "But it is also worth putting the latest drop in context. The Tory lead has been falling consistently since the "vaccine bounce" came to an end in May. Looking at this chart, it seems more like the continuation of a trend rather than a shock":
Chart 1. Monthly Opinion Polling Averages, %
Source: The Times, @chriscurtis94
- The row engulfing the gov't and the Conservative Party has seen betting markets shift in their expectations of the year Boris Johnson will leave Downing St. While 'later than 2024' remains the most favoured option, there has been a sharp rise in the number of bettors placing wagers on 2022 as the year the PM leaves office (see chart below).
- Implied probability of Johnson leaving office in 2022 rises from 18.2% to 29.0% in little over a week. Conversely, the implied probability of him remaining in office until at least 2024 falls from 58.5% at the start of the month to 49.0% at present.
Chart 2. Implied Probability of Year Boris Johnson Leaves Office, %
Source: betdata.io, Betfair
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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