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Slightly Upbeat Mood Ahead Of PCE

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys have pulled back from overnight highs Friday to sit largely flat, with PCE data the session's focus.

  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) down 2/32 at 132-03.5, but well within prior session's ranges (L: 132-02 / H: 132-06.5) and on weak volume (~170k as of 0600ET).
  • 30Yr outperforming: 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.27%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.9151%, 10-Yr is down 0.2bps at 1.4901%, and 30-Yr is down 1bps at 2.0878%.
  • Sentiment's been largely positive overnight, with a tentative bipartisan infrastructure agreement in place (though many questions remain). Stock futures briefly touched all-time highs before retracing; the dollar has softened slightly.
  • 0830ET sees the May personal income/spending report. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE deflator, will be a focus (0.6% M/M prior, 0.5% estimate; core 0.7% prior, 0.6% estimate). Final Jun UMich sentiment at 1000ET.
  • In Fed speakers, we get Minn's Kashkari at 1000ET, Cleveland's Mester at 1130ET, Boston's Rosengren at 1300ET, and NY's Williams at 1500ET.
  • No supply; NY Fed buys ~$8.425B of 2.25-4.5Y Tsys.
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