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UK
A snap poll of Conservative Party members carried out over the past 48 hours by YouGov shows no clear favourite to take over from outgoing PM Boris Johnson. That said, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace holds a narrow lead among all candidates, and would win through in final-round run-offs according to the poll.
- Wallace gains the backing of 13% of respondents, with Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt on 12%, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak on 10%, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on 8%. Overall, there are nine potential candidates polling 5% or higher.
Chart 1. Poll: Who would you like to see take over as Con leader/PM?
Source: YouGov. Fieldwork 6-7 July, Respondents: 716 Conservative party members
- In hypothetical run-off matchups, Wallace would defeat all comers according to this poll. Meanwhile, Truss would be able to defeat other frontrunners Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, while a run-off between Sunak and Mordaunt would be a virtual tie. All frontrunners would be able to defeat Johnson's 2019 run-off opponent Jeremy Hunt according to the poll.
Chart 2. Poll: In a run-off, which of the following two candidates would you want to see as PM?
Source: YouGov. Fieldwork 6-7 July, Respondents: 716 Conservative party members
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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