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Snaps Multi-Decade Winning Streak, But Tailwinds Remain


AUD/NZD pulled back from its best levels since 2018 under the psychological NZ$1.1000 mark yesterday, as NZD picked up a bid despite lingering coronavirus concerns & MonPol dynamics. The move seemed driven by profit taking and allowed the rate to snap its longest winning streak in nearly three decades.

  • Even as AUD/NZD turned its tail yesterday, bulls hope that the RBNZ's increasing openness toward negative interest rates and the RBA's reluctance to adopt this policy measure will fuel further gains. OIS markets are pricing ~39bp worth of rate cuts from the RBNZ by Jul 2021, with the OCR currently sitting at 0.25%.
  • Meanwhile, New Zealand scrambles to contain the resurfacing coronavirus, but the Health Min ruled out raising alert level in Auckland to 4 from the current 3.
  • AUD/NZD trades flat at NZ$1.0973 as we type. A break above Aug 18 high of NZ$1.1044 would open up the upper 3.0% Bollinger band at NZ$1.1114, followed by Aug 9 high of NZ$1.1175. Bears look for a dip through Jun 2 high of NZ$1.0881, towards the 50-DMA at NZ$1.0730.

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