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SNB President Says Strong CHF Hurting Swiss Companies

SWITZERLAND
  • SNB President Jordan comments at banking event in Brig via Bloomberg:
    • We expect some inflationary pressure from rents
    • Nominal appreciation of the franc has lowered inflation
    • Franc appreciation hurting Swiss companies
    • Inflation situation much better in dec. than in sept.
    • Confident there won't be a recession in Switzerland
  • Interestingly, HSBC recently put out a note stating that the SNB's language around the currency has become more balanced, and some data points might be signalling a return to FX reserves accumulation. However, HSBC note a shift away from a "strong franc" policy does not automatically mean a preference for a "weak franc".
  • "Inflation has been relatively low through the recent cycle, but there has been a distinct lack of downward momentum in recent months. Real policy rates over a shorter-term window are much lower than in the Eurozone, suggesting less room for monetary and FX policy looseness in Switzerland. Meanwhile, export strength and soft import growth do not suggest an excessively overvalued CHF."
  • HSBC continue to see EUR-CHF grinding slightly lower in 2024 to 0.93.
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