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SocGen On Eurex Futures Rolls

EGBS
  • Schatz: The CTD bond will change during the roll from BKO Jun-25 to BKO Sep-25, extending the CTD bond maturity from 1.8 years to 2.1 years. Markets are positioned neutral, while open interest is higher than average. The front contract looks rich, as the net basis of the front contract is much lower than the net basis of the back contract, and we are bearish on the DU roll.
  • Bobl: CTD will change from OBL Apr-28 to OBL Oct-28. Markets have been relatively short the OE front contract since the beginning of August. The open interest is around the four-year average As the rolling of short positions from the front to back contract could offset the relative richness of the front contract, we are neutral on the OE roll.
  • SocGen suggest that CTDs in the following contracts are unlikely to change in the coming days:
  • Bunds: Markets have been positioned neutral, and the open interest is at a four-year low. We are therefore neutral on the RX roll.
  • Buxl: Markets have been slightly short, but the open interest is near its four-year low. We are therefore slightly bullish on the UB roll.
  • OAT: Markets are neutrally positioned in OAT futures, while the open interest is at its four-year low. We therefore do not expect much activity during the roll period and are neutral on the OAT roll
  • BTP: Markets are slightly short IKU3, while the open interest is just below its four-year average. We are slightly bullish on the IK roll
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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