MNI BRIEF:BOJ Q1 Output Gap Hits 16th Negative Reading In Row

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1312 Weds; -0.34% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY248 Bln Via OMO Weds; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1312 WEDS VS 7.1291

MNI BRIEF: 'Noise' Driving Economic Deterioration- Campos Neto

Australia May Total Dwelling Approved +5.5%

Australia May Retail Trade +0.6%

MNI: AUSTRALIA MAY RETAIL SALES +0.6% M/M

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SocGen Say BanRep Could Commence Monetary Easing In December

COLOMBIA
  • Along with all other surveyed analysts, SocGen believe that BanRep will keep rates unchanged at 13.25% this week. However, they also forecast the central bank to begin its easing cycle in December with additional weakness reported on growth and prices data by then.
  • Growth and inflation have decelerated at a slower pace this year than SocGen expected. Core inflation was rising until June and has declined by only four ticks since then to 11.2% yoy in August. The level of demand is still high enough to maintain pressure on prices. Additionally, energy prices are facing renewed upward pressure.
  • As a result, despite the strong base effect and the significant appreciation of the peso, inflation numbers remain quite high and year-ahead inflation expectations are still double BanRep’s target.
  • BanRep has proved itself to be one of the most dovish central banks in the region. Once inflation numbers have declined further and real rates have risen sufficiently to put pressure on demand and prices, BanRep might consider beginning its easing cycle.
  • It has little reason to be hasty on the easing front, particularly with the Fed still in search of its own peak rate in this cycle. Nevertheless, external challenges are unlikely to prevent BanRep from easing, given the strong peso. We believe that the central bank could begin the easing cycle in December even though the risks are probably skewed in favour of delayed easing.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.