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Soft Wages & Negative NFP Revisions Result In 100bp Of '24 Fed Cuts Being Priced

STIR

The mixed U.S. labour market data triggers volatile trade within contained ranges in FOMC-dated OIS.

  • The miss for wages then establishes itself as the dominant factor from a market perspective, given the readthrough for inflation.
  • Negative revisions for the headline reading also factor in.
  • ~100.5bp of ’24 cuts priced vs. 92.5bp pre-data.
  • The first 25bp cut remains fully discounted through the end of the June FOMC, with 30% odds of a cut priced through the May FOMC, both relatively little changed vs. pre-data levels.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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