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Softer Greenback Extends GBP Bounce

FOREX
  • The US dollar lost ground on Monday with the DXY 0.36% worse off. Initial two-way price action was trumped by a bout of greenback supply following the US cash equity open, where US indices breached Friday's highs, largely ignoring the sharp drawdown in Chinese equities overnight.
  • Factoring in the lack of cross-region follow through and the strong performance of commodity indices, AUD and NZD reversed early losses, to trade in the green. Additionally, a buoyant EURUSD broke back above 1.18, honing in on the ECB highs at 1.1830.
  • The weaker dollar aided further GBP strength in the latter half of Monday, with GBPUSD (+0.55%) taking out initial resistance at 1.3790 and trading to highs of 1.3833. Local press have highlighted the recent downtick in case growth despite economic re-opening. Showing the effectiveness of vaccines, case growth has slowed before any catch-up in hospitalisation or fatality statistics, bolstering the sterling recovery. The next level of note is the 50-day EMA at 1.3887.
  • The market's attention is starting to focus on the July Fed statement and press conference, due on Wednesday. The FOMC will use the July meeting to debate its strategy to taper asset purchases (including timing, pace, and composition).
  • Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda is due to speak overnight at an online event hosted by the Japan National Press Club. RBA's Debelle will then speak at the FX Markets USA online conference with a Q&A expected.
  • In terms of data, US durable goods orders and consumer confidence headline a light Tuesday docket.
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