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Some German Inversion Reversion Eyeing More Hawkish ECB

BONDS

Global core FI has been under pressure through the European morning, with Bunds underperforming Gilts and Treasuries.

  • EGBs have weakened as ECB hike pricing has edged higher, with both the terminal and Dec hiking rates up 3bp implied with Muller comments leaning hawkish this morning (following on from Schnabel likewise Thursday).
  • Some of the German curve flattening this week has reversed, with bear steepening early on this morning.
  • The PBOC cut the RRR rate by 25bps in a highly anticipated move, little reac.
  • An appearance by ECB's Visco is all that remains between now and the weekend, with a bare data slate today in the US, and no supply and no speakers. Reminder that it's an early close for most US markets.

Latest levels:

  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 2/32 at 112-28.5 (L: 112-27.5 / H: 113-15)
  • Dec Bund futures (RX) down 105 ticks at 141.09 (L: 141.01 / H: 142.03)
  • Dec Gilt futures (G) down 70 ticks at 107.22 (L: 107.15 / H: 107.66)
  • Dec BTP futures (IK) down 87 ticks at 120.51 (L: 120.39 / H: 121.21)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.7bps wider at 183.1bps
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