SONIA Flatter & Firmer, As Is BoE OIS

SONIA futures are 1.0-10.5bp firmer through the blues ahead of the gilt open, with the strip flattening and the greens outperforming.

• BoE-dated OIS eases by 1-5bp as that’s trip also flattens.
• An early morning rally in core global FI futures is helping support the space.
• Also, as noted elsewhere, despite some of the headline data beats vs. estimates in this morning’s UK data, a deeper look at the internals points to a continued softening in the labour market, which will likely be helping the bid further. Note methodology tweaks from the ONS make it hard to draw direct comparisons vs. previous data release.
• Elsehwere, the latest RTRS poll noted that “the BoE is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters” (61/73 look for no change in rates, with the remaining 12 looking for a 25bp hike). Still, the view that the hiking cycle is over comes with varying degrees of conviction, with the same poll noting that “16 of 28 who answered an additional question said the chance of another hike this year was high.”
• Flash PMI data headlines the domestic docket during the remainder of today.