SONIA Futures A Little Above Yesterday's Late Lows

SONIA futures are generally a little off yesterday’s late lows, running flat to -4.0 through the blues.

• BoE-dated OIS is within 1bp of yesterday’s closing levels, last showing ~62.5bp of cuts through ’24, with the first 25bp cut more or less fully discounted come the end of the Aug ’24 MPC.
• Continued Fed caution re: rate cuts has helped cap any rallies in wider bonds, although TY and Bund futures operate off of overnight lows.
• OFGEM announced a 12.3% move lower in the Q2 energy price cap, a slightly shallower fall than the benchmark exp. of circa -14%.
• That means that the household reprieve, while still notable, will not be quite as meaningful as many had hoped.
• GfK consumer confidence saw a downtick overnight (-21 from -18).
• Still, the survey provider told MNI that there are still headwinds holding back the UK consumer but the outlook for personal finances over the coming year remains a relative positive.
• The domestic docket is virtually non-existent today.