June 18, 2024 07:09 GMT
SONIA Futures Either Side Of Unchanged, Just Over 40bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced
STIR
SONIA futures print -1.5 to +1.0 through the blues, with Bund and gilt futures sitting around levels seen at the time of yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.
- BoE-dated OIS is little changed on the day, showing ~18bp of cuts through the Sep MPC and a little over 40bp of cumulative easing through year end.
- Overnight local headline flow won’t have been market moving, with political headwinds for PM Sunak and the Conservative Party still dominating.
- Labour’s tax policies continue to get plenty of airtime, with Shadow Chancellor Reeves providing background details on some of the more niche aspects of her party’s fiscal policy preferences.
- Kantar’s food price inflation metric moderated for a sixteenth consecutive month, printing +2.1% Y/Y, a welcome sign for policymakers.
- A gilt auction headlines the UK schedule today, but that shouldn’t be too much of a mover for the short end.
- Brightmine wage data will hit in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
- Further out, tomorrow’s CPI data and Thursday’s BoE decision headline this week’s UK schedule.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 5.203 | +0.3 |
Aug-24 | 5.099 | -10.1 |
Sep-24 | 5.023 | -17.7 |
Nov-24 | 4.894 | -30.6 |
Dec-24 | 4.795 | -40.5 |
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