SONIA Futures Either Side Of Unchanged, Just Over 40bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

SONIA futures print -1.5 to +1.0 through the blues, with Bund and gilt futures sitting around levels seen at the time of yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

• BoE-dated OIS is little changed on the day, showing ~18bp of cuts through the Sep MPC and a little over 40bp of cumulative easing through year end.
• Overnight local headline flow won’t have been market moving, with political headwinds for PM Sunak and the Conservative Party still dominating.
• Labour’s tax policies continue to get plenty of airtime, with Shadow Chancellor Reeves providing background details on some of the more niche aspects of her party’s fiscal policy preferences.
• Kantar’s food price inflation metric moderated for a sixteenth consecutive month, printing +2.1% Y/Y, a welcome sign for policymakers.
• A gilt auction headlines the UK schedule today, but that shouldn’t be too much of a mover for the short end.
• Brightmine wage data will hit in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
• Further out, tomorrow’s CPI data and Thursday’s BoE decision headline this week’s UK schedule.