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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- SONIA futures are the biggest movers of the morning, reversing some of yesterday's post-PMI rally. The strip has steepened with Whites down up to 3.5 ticks, Reds down 3.0-3.5 ticks, Greens down 3.0-4.5 ticks and Blues down 4.5-5.0 ticks. The market-implied probability of a 50bp hike by August reduced from around 65% at Monday's close to a low of around 30% yesterday and is now back to around 45%. June is now priced for 29bp, August 61bp, September: 85bp with 121bp by year-end (from 129bp at Monday's close).
- The front-end of the Euribor strip is a little higher today with the curve starting to steepen a bit from the end of 2022. Whites are up to 2.5 ticks higher, Reds up to 1.5 ticks higher while Greens/Blues are up to 2.5 ticks lower on the day. The Euribor strip got dragged higher yesterday following the afternoon US data. Markets now price 34bp by July (cumulatively), 65bp by September, 82bp by October and 107bp by year-end. As we noted in the What to Watch bullet, there are a plethora of ECB speakers this morning, so there is potential for more moves in the Euribor strip.
- The Eurodollar strip is generally within a tick of yesterday's close, holding on to yesterday's rally ahead of durable goods and the FOMC Minutes later. Markets still price 52bp for June, 99bp for July, 133bp by September and 183bp by year-end.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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