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SONIA leading STIR futures higher

STIR FUTURES
  • The SONIA strip has been moving higher all day and recent comments from Blinken that the US could not see any meaningful pullback of Russian troops has helped push us to new highs. As well as the Blinken comments, there seems to be so much priced into STIR markets globally that the bar for data releases to satisfy the market seems to be moving higher and higher.
  • Reds / Greens are seeing the biggest moves, up to 17 ticks higher on the day (but still down around 25 ticks since the close last Wednesday).
  • In terms of BOE pricing, March now priced for 38.4bp (down from a high of 47.0bp yesterday), May a cumulative 73.8bp (down from a high of 86.3bp yesterday) while there are still 100bp priced for June, 122bp for August and 150.8bp by year-end (this was as high as 165bp).
  • Euribor futures also moving high, up to 7.5 ticks higher at writing. A 25bp hike is still fully priced by September but there are now less than 50bp priced for 2022 as a whole (47bp priced, down from 56.5bp high yesterday.

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