June 26, 2024 06:42 GMT
SONIA Shows ~45bp Of '24 BoE Cuts
STIR
SONIA futures are flat to -3.0, as the firmer-than-expected Australian CPI data keeps the pressure on after yesterday’s post-settlement dip.
- Meanwhile, BoE-dated OIS contracts are little changed, showing ~14bp of cuts for August, ~20bp of cuts through the September MPC and ~45bp of cuts come year end.
- We flagged some potential short-term limitations for further dovish BoE repricing earlier this week.
- CBI sales data is the only data point on today’s limited UK data calendar.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.061 | -13.9 |
| Sep-24 | 4.997 | -20.3 |
| Nov-24 | 4.851 | -35.0 |
| Dec-24 | 4.753 | -44.8 |
| Feb-25 | 4.610 | -59.0 |
| Mar-25 | 4.514 | -68.6 |
| May-25 | 4.391 | -81.0 |
| Jun-25 | 4.300 | -90.0 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
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