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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSONIA Shows A Little Over 40bp Of '24 BoE Cuts
BoE-dated OIS contracts are little changed to 1.5bp firmer through mid-’25, with core global FI markets softening further since yesterday’s gilt close.
- Slightly greater than even odds of a 25bp cut are still priced for the August MPC (13bp of cuts), with ~41.5bp of cuts priced through year end.
- SONIA futures are essentially unchanged.
- Political matters continue to dominate UK headlines.
- Labour still hold a wide lead in the opinion polls. The pre-election leadership debates have now concluded and failed to have a meaningful impact on the polls.
- The UK calendar is empty today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-24 | 5.068 | -13.2 |
Sep-24 | 5.009 | -19.1 |
Nov-24 | 4.875 | -32.5 |
Dec-24 | 4.786 | -41.4 |
Feb-25 | 4.650 | -55.0 |
Mar-25 | 4.566 | -63.4 |
May-25 | 4.439 | -76.1 |
Jun-25 | 4.354 | -84.6 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.