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SONIA Shows A Little Over 40bp Of '24 BoE Cuts

STIR

BoE-dated OIS contracts are little changed to 1.5bp firmer through mid-’25, with core global FI markets softening further since yesterday’s gilt close.

  • Slightly greater than even odds of a 25bp cut are still priced for the August MPC (13bp of cuts), with ~41.5bp of cuts priced through year end.
  • SONIA futures are essentially unchanged.
  • Political matters continue to dominate UK headlines.
  • Labour still hold a wide lead in the opinion polls. The pre-election leadership debates have now concluded and failed to have a meaningful impact on the polls.
  • The UK calendar is empty today.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.068-13.2
Sep-245.009-19.1
Nov-244.875-32.5
Dec-244.786-41.4
Feb-254.650-55.0
Mar-254.566-63.4
May-254.439-76.1
Jun-254.354-84.6

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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