June 27, 2024 06:49 GMT
SONIA Shows A Little Over 40bp Of '24 BoE Cuts
STIR
BoE-dated OIS contracts are little changed to 1.5bp firmer through mid-’25, with core global FI markets softening further since yesterday’s gilt close.
- Slightly greater than even odds of a 25bp cut are still priced for the August MPC (13bp of cuts), with ~41.5bp of cuts priced through year end.
- SONIA futures are essentially unchanged.
- Political matters continue to dominate UK headlines.
- Labour still hold a wide lead in the opinion polls. The pre-election leadership debates have now concluded and failed to have a meaningful impact on the polls.
- The UK calendar is empty today.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.068 | -13.2 |
| Sep-24 | 5.009 | -19.1 |
| Nov-24 | 4.875 | -32.5 |
| Dec-24 | 4.786 | -41.4 |
| Feb-25 | 4.650 | -55.0 |
| Mar-25 | 4.566 | -63.4 |
| May-25 | 4.439 | -76.1 |
| Jun-25 | 4.354 | -84.6 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
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