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SOUTH AFRICA: HSBC Say July CPI Print Raises Chance of Sept Rate Cut

SOUTH AFRICA
  • HSBC say today’s lower inflation print is likely to boost support for a policy rate cut at the September MPC meeting.
  • They forecast a 25bp rate reduction, with a total of 75bp of easing over 2024-25 to take the policy rate to 7.5% by the middle of next year.
  • HSBC add that downside CPI surprises, particularly if complemented with lower inflation expectations, raise the prospect of the SARB cutting quicker and slightly deeper than they currently expect.
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