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Spain Aug HICP Preview

EUROZONE

Spain (11% of EZ HICP) – 0800UK Wed 30 Aug

Consensus:

  • CPI: 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior); 0.5% M/M (vs 0.2% prior).
  • Core CPI: 6.0% Y/Y (vs 6.2% prior).
  • HICP: 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.1% prior); 0.5% M/M (vs -0.1% prior).
Overview:
  • Headline inflation is seen rising on the back of a less negative base effect, while the continuation of summer sales should put continued pressure on semi-durable goods prices (e.g. clothing and footwear).
  • Nomura expect electricity and gas prices to be broadly unchanged on the month, as electricity pass-through from wholesale to retail is largely complete and changes in regulated gas prices were already introduced last month.
Analysts:
  • Barclays: HICP 2.5% Y/Y (0.6% M/M)
  • Goldman: HICP 2.5% Y/Y; core 4.3% Y/Y and 0.43% M/M
  • Morgan Stanley: CPI 2.7% Y/Y and core 6.2% Y/Y
  • JPM: HICP: 2.3% Y/Y; CPI 2.3% Y/Y and 0.2% M/M
  • BofA: HICP 2.3% Y/Y, 0.4% M/M. CPI 2.5% Y/Y, 0.4% M/M.

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