Speaker Johnson Faces Bind Over USD$95b National Security Supplemental Bill

The Senate yesterday cleared another hurdle on the USD$95 billion national security supplemental package, which includes new funding for Ukraine, Israel, and other US allies, teeing up a final vote no later than Wednesday.

• The bipartisan 67-27 vote suggests that a moderate coalition of Senators remains committed to Ukraine despite pressure from former President Donald Trump to block aid.
• With the Senate set to the pass the package, focus turns to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). The Speaker is aligned with a conservative faction opposed to Ukraine funding but the strength of bipartisan will limit Johnson's scope for blocking the bill.
• If Johnson allows a vote, he faces a rebellion from the conservatives who ousted former Speaker McCarthy. Several lawmakers have hinted that Democrats may protect Johnson should conservatives move to vacate the chair.
• Johnson may choose to split the bill into a series of individual votes - his preferred strategy. This would be time consuming and require support from conservatives on the House Rules Committee - a big gamble.
• He could also take another run at his standalone Israel bill which would then likely be returned with Senate package attached as an amendment. This strategy risks another politically damaging House vote.
• Finally, a discharge petition - often floated during periods of gridlock but rarely comes to pass. There is a live petition from the debt limit standoff so GOP defence hawks could sign the petition and bring the bill to the floor. This is unlikely and would be a disaster for Johnson who has recently struggled to maintain control over the chamber.