Special Elections Indicate Improved Political Environment For Democrats

A special election in New York’s 19^th Congressional District is the latest in a string of recent special elections which have shown Democrat candidates outperforming polling over Republican opponents.

• Democrat strategists argue that the improved political environment is due to support for Democrat candidates following the Supreme Court decision to overturn the reproductive rights protections of Roe vs Wade.
• Yesterday in NY19, Democrat candidate Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro. NY19 is considered a true swing district. Obama won it in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. Polling leading up to the contest consistently showed Molinaro with a lead over Ryan.
• Ryan campaigned on an reproductive rights platform and Molinaro on the economy and inflation, a dynamic is likely to be repeated throughout midterm campaigns.
• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (NY): “What happened in New York 19th [District] is an earthquake. You saw huge turnout. Clearly the choice message worked... And he won a special election that Republicans should have won easily.”
• Ryan said after the count: “When the Supreme Court ripped away reproductive rights, access to abortion rights, we said, ‘This is not what America stands for.” Ryan continued: “This is a disaster for Tom Emmer and Kevin McCarthy because their dreams of a big win in November just went up in flames.”
• The Hill: “Democrats are now arguing that predictions of a Republican romp in November… are wrong. And they’re pointing to abortion and the Supreme Court’s decision striking down Roe v. Wade as the key to Tuesday’s victory, and possibly the House this fall.”
• Election analyst Ryan Matsumoto noted last night: “Democrats have now outperformed Biden’s numbers in each of the four U.S. House special elections since the Dobbs decision in June.”
• The 2020 election result compared with special election results of the four special elections which took place after the SCOTUS "Dobbs" ruling, per Matsumoto:
  • NE01 - Trump +15 -> R+5
  • MN01 - Trump +10 -> R+4
  • NY19 - Biden +1.5 -> D+2.2
  • NY23 - Trump +11 -> R+6