MNI BRIEF: BOC Says Recession Is Possible In Deep Trade War

BOC'S MACKLEM: DEEP TRADE WAR COULD LEAD TO CANADA RECESSION

BOC'S MACKLEM DOESN'T SEE 1970S STYLE STAGFLATION

MNI BRIEF:CBRT Ups O/Night Lending Rate, Policy Rate Unchanged

MNI BRIEF: US Feb Existing Home Sales Jumps To 4.26M

MNI BRIEF: China Outward Investment Up In Jan Feb

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU-Bond Auction on Monday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE +9 BCF TO 1,707 BCF MAR 14 WK

MNI: US NAR: FEB EXISTING HOME SALES 4.26M SAAR

GERMANY: Handelsblatt Report on Lingering Uncertainties Ahead of Bundestag

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

TWD: Spot Close To 33.00, Equity Outflows Driving TWD Underperformance

TWD
EM BulletBulletAPACTaiwanEmerging Market News

Spot USD/TWD holds close to recent highs, the pair last near 32.94. The pair hasn't been above 33.00 since early Feb and for a period in mid Jan. We are above all key EMAs, with the 20-day close by at 32.86, while the 50-day, which has been a more important support point in recent months, is further south near 32.79.

  • Headlines have crossed from the head of the CBC earlier today. Governor Yang Chin-Long stating the central bank is most likely to cut rates when inflation dips sub 1.5%. The central bank next meets on March 20, with a current policy rate of 2.0%.
  • The current headline y/y inflation rate is 1.58%, but core is already sub 1% y/y (the next inflation print is due on Apr 8).
  • In any event, waning US-TW swap rate spreads has aided TWD much in recent months, so a CBC cut may not be a headwind for the local FX.
  • The central bank Governor also touched on proposed TSMC investments into the US, stating the potential $100bn investment wouldn't cause significant fund outflows, or impact FX reserves in the short term.
  • Weakness in TSMC, amid broader tech equity losses, has contributed to sharp outflows from Taiwan equities so far this year. This week has seen nearly $2.8bn in outflows alone (YTD outflows rest at $12.7bn), second worse in the region only to India this year.
  • Like elsewhere in the region, Taiwan equities are stabilizing. The TWSE back above 22000, after dipping sub this level briefly earlier this week.
  • Greater stability on this front, coupled with stabilizing portfolio equity flows may help reverse recent TWD underperformance. The currency is the third worst performer in the region (after IDR and INR) in 2025 to date. Beyond that focus will be US tariffs, with reciprocal tariffs planned for early April. 
300 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Spot USD/TWD holds close to recent highs, the pair last near 32.94. The pair hasn't been above 33.00 since early Feb and for a period in mid Jan. We are above all key EMAs, with the 20-day close by at 32.86, while the 50-day, which has been a more important support point in recent months, is further south near 32.79.

  • Headlines have crossed from the head of the CBC earlier today. Governor Yang Chin-Long stating the central bank is most likely to cut rates when inflation dips sub 1.5%. The central bank next meets on March 20, with a current policy rate of 2.0%.
  • The current headline y/y inflation rate is 1.58%, but core is already sub 1% y/y (the next inflation print is due on Apr 8).
  • In any event, waning US-TW swap rate spreads has aided TWD much in recent months, so a CBC cut may not be a headwind for the local FX.
  • The central bank Governor also touched on proposed TSMC investments into the US, stating the potential $100bn investment wouldn't cause significant fund outflows, or impact FX reserves in the short term.
  • Weakness in TSMC, amid broader tech equity losses, has contributed to sharp outflows from Taiwan equities so far this year. This week has seen nearly $2.8bn in outflows alone (YTD outflows rest at $12.7bn), second worse in the region only to India this year.
  • Like elsewhere in the region, Taiwan equities are stabilizing. The TWSE back above 22000, after dipping sub this level briefly earlier this week.
  • Greater stability on this front, coupled with stabilizing portfolio equity flows may help reverse recent TWD underperformance. The currency is the third worst performer in the region (after IDR and INR) in 2025 to date. Beyond that focus will be US tariffs, with reciprocal tariffs planned for early April.