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KRW: Spot USD/KRW Comfortably Sub 50-day EMA, Underlying Export Trend Softer

KRW

Spot USD/KRW sits at 1434/35 in latest dealings, down slightly on closing levels from Thursday. We are sub the 50-day EMA, back just above 1439. Downside focus may rest on the late Jan lows of 1426.8. below that the 100-day EMA is close to 1420.75. 

  • Thursday delivered firm JPY and CNH gains, which positively spilled over for the won, although spot gains of 0.43% lagged some of these moves and some higher beta plays.
  • Broader USD softness has unfolded this week, amidst a relatively steady US yield backdrop and potential signs of lowered geopolitical tensions. The won is one of the better EM Asia FX performers this week, although is up only a modest 0.50%.
  • On the data front, we had mixed sentiment readings. Non-manufacturing dipped to 81.7 from 83.6 Jan. Manufacturing rose to 90.1, but is still well off 2024 highs. Headline exports surged to +16% y/y for the first 20-days of Feb, but on a daily average basis were still negative y/y. This still suggests a loss of export momentum.
  • In the equity space, the Kospi is tracking lower by around 0.4% in early Friday dealings. Offshore leads were partly negative, although the SOX index didn't shift much in US Thursday trade. Offshore investors resumed selling local shares yesterday, with -$353.5mn in outflows. 
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Spot USD/KRW sits at 1434/35 in latest dealings, down slightly on closing levels from Thursday. We are sub the 50-day EMA, back just above 1439. Downside focus may rest on the late Jan lows of 1426.8. below that the 100-day EMA is close to 1420.75. 

  • Thursday delivered firm JPY and CNH gains, which positively spilled over for the won, although spot gains of 0.43% lagged some of these moves and some higher beta plays.
  • Broader USD softness has unfolded this week, amidst a relatively steady US yield backdrop and potential signs of lowered geopolitical tensions. The won is one of the better EM Asia FX performers this week, although is up only a modest 0.50%.
  • On the data front, we had mixed sentiment readings. Non-manufacturing dipped to 81.7 from 83.6 Jan. Manufacturing rose to 90.1, but is still well off 2024 highs. Headline exports surged to +16% y/y for the first 20-days of Feb, but on a daily average basis were still negative y/y. This still suggests a loss of export momentum.
  • In the equity space, the Kospi is tracking lower by around 0.4% in early Friday dealings. Offshore leads were partly negative, although the SOX index didn't shift much in US Thursday trade. Offshore investors resumed selling local shares yesterday, with -$353.5mn in outflows.