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Spreads Muted As Neste Oyj Reports Q4 Revenue Beat With In-Line EBITDA

ENERGY SECTOR
  • Q4 Rev beat consensus by 13% driven by 22% and 3% beats in their Oil and Renewables segments more than offsetting a 6% miss in their much smaller Marketing segment. adj-EBITDA in-line with expectations. DPS appears to have disappointed at EUR 1.20 vs. consensus of EUR 1.37.
  • Leverage ratio of 23% is up from the 14% at FY22 though still aligned with the target of <40%. Q4 FCF of EUR 475mn is -20% YoY though FY FCF of EUR 751mn is up from the negative EUR 390mn in FY22.
  • Management guiding for higher total renewable volumes next year (with a comparable sales margin of USD 600-800 from USD 863 this year) though oil product volumes seen lower on the back of the planned Porvoo turnaround in Q2 (with a lower total refining margin).
  • Management expect continued high volatility in both Oil and Renewables, noting bioticket and renewable credit prices have decreased in the new year.

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