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Staff See Mild Recession Later This Year But Powell Had Hinted At Such

FED
  • There’s some attention in the FOMC minutes on the staff forecast now showing a mild recession as a base case: “Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”
  • However, we repeat the following from our review of the Fed decision: "Recession Starting To Look Like Fed’s Base Case: Powell was asked about the unemployment forecast implying a sharp rise by year-end from current levels, and he spoke briefly about non-linear effects on inflation of a recession almost as if it were the baseline scenario. And assuming the Fed’s projections for H1 of this year are similar to market expectations of strong growth, the 2023-2024 GDP forecast arithmetically implies a sharp slowdown / contraction in H2 2023."
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