Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We had another session yesterday where £IG moved tighter (-0.6) in the face of $/€IG widening +2.2/1.5bps. It's now switched from a YTD index underperformer to an outperformer - yields seem to be the driving force after BOE cuts repriced earlier this month. Over the last week 10yr Gilts have outperformed bunds by 10bps & held on par with a strong US rates rally. Spread rally's been driven by front-end perhaps targeting more cuts/roll in future and its left the spread curve flat vs. $/€ counterparts. Focus on yeilds is echoed in risk sentiment that otherwise seems to be trading on par - FTSE100 followed the US equities cash open sell-off yesterday.
Gilts largely traded through the slightly softer (final) Manufacturing PMI this morning leaving 10's ~unch. from yesterday. Pricing heading into the meeting below. Our UK analyst are looking for 1-2 (out of total 9) hawkish dissenters for +25bp hike and assigns a 40% probability to Dhingra voting for a cut at this meeting. Consensus (10/19 analysts) expect unanimous 9 for a hold. Re. statement in line with consensus (59%) our analyst see tightening bias removed; "Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.". There will also be a focus on MPR forecasts - our analyst sees downward revisions on short term fcst's.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.