CANADA TO PUBLISH FISCAL UPDATE ON DEC. 16

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Expectations Tick Higher - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: $-Bloc Markets Firmer Over Past Weak Apart From CA

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In the $-bloc, official rate expectations through July 2025 have mostly firmed over the past week. New Zealand led the movement with a 13bp increase, followed by Australia and the US at +10bps. Canada was the outlier, showing no change. 

  • The key event across the $-bloc market was the release of Australian Q3 CPI. While Q3 trimmed mean CPI printed in line with expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y, services inflation rose 1.1% q/q and 4.6% y/y up from Q2’s 1.0% and 4.5%. The lack of progress will likely continue to worry the RBA.
  • Movements since the CPI print place 2025 meetings 3-9bps above pre-CPI levels.
  • Later today will the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls. Nonfarm payroll growth is expected to slow materially to circa 100k in October after a booming 254k in September, with significant disruption from strikes and potential hurricane fallout.
  • The Fed’s Waller has previously estimated this could drag 100k from payrolls this month although that appears right at the top end of analyst expectations. (See MNI NFP Preview here)
  • Looking ahead to July 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.79%, -108bps; Canada (BoC): 2.83%, -92bps; Australia (RBA): 4.01%, -31bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.34%, -141bps.

 

Keep reading...Show less
219 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

In the $-bloc, official rate expectations through July 2025 have mostly firmed over the past week. New Zealand led the movement with a 13bp increase, followed by Australia and the US at +10bps. Canada was the outlier, showing no change. 

  • The key event across the $-bloc market was the release of Australian Q3 CPI. While Q3 trimmed mean CPI printed in line with expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y, services inflation rose 1.1% q/q and 4.6% y/y up from Q2’s 1.0% and 4.5%. The lack of progress will likely continue to worry the RBA.
  • Movements since the CPI print place 2025 meetings 3-9bps above pre-CPI levels.
  • Later today will the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls. Nonfarm payroll growth is expected to slow materially to circa 100k in October after a booming 254k in September, with significant disruption from strikes and potential hurricane fallout.
  • The Fed’s Waller has previously estimated this could drag 100k from payrolls this month although that appears right at the top end of analyst expectations. (See MNI NFP Preview here)
  • Looking ahead to July 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.79%, -108bps; Canada (BoC): 2.83%, -92bps; Australia (RBA): 4.01%, -31bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.34%, -141bps.

 

Keep reading...Show less