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STIR: Fed Funds Little Changed In US Session, Kugler Ahead

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates for meetings through to mid-2025 are ultimately little changed from where they were as US desks filtered in today, with only partial paring of yesterday’s slide on soft consumer confidence including its labor differential.
  • There remains little net spillover from the historically large 118k block sale worth about $3m DV01 for SFRZ4, which continues to weigh on the latter.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 40.5bp Nov, 79bp Dec, 112bp Jan and 180bp June.
  • Tomorrow sees data interest from comprehensive GDP revisions, continued sensitivity to weekly jobless claims and preliminary core durable goods. That’s along with heavy Fedspeak as part of the US Treasury Market Conference.
  • Today, we’re still to see rare Fedspeak from Gov. Kugler (voter) at 1600ET on the economic outlook with both prepared remarks and moderated Q&A.
  • She last spoke Jul 16 (Fed doesn’t want to see labor market cool too much, watching data incredibly closely given it can weaken fast) and before that Jun 18 (likely appropriate to cut rates later this year). We see her at the dovish end of the spectrum and will watch for anything that updates that view.  
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  • Fed Funds implied rates for meetings through to mid-2025 are ultimately little changed from where they were as US desks filtered in today, with only partial paring of yesterday’s slide on soft consumer confidence including its labor differential.
  • There remains little net spillover from the historically large 118k block sale worth about $3m DV01 for SFRZ4, which continues to weigh on the latter.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 40.5bp Nov, 79bp Dec, 112bp Jan and 180bp June.
  • Tomorrow sees data interest from comprehensive GDP revisions, continued sensitivity to weekly jobless claims and preliminary core durable goods. That’s along with heavy Fedspeak as part of the US Treasury Market Conference.
  • Today, we’re still to see rare Fedspeak from Gov. Kugler (voter) at 1600ET on the economic outlook with both prepared remarks and moderated Q&A.
  • She last spoke Jul 16 (Fed doesn’t want to see labor market cool too much, watching data incredibly closely given it can weaken fast) and before that Jun 18 (likely appropriate to cut rates later this year). We see her at the dovish end of the spectrum and will watch for anything that updates that view.