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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings have seen mixed changes overnight, with September a little lower (-0.5bp) but December higher (+1bp). They broadly hold yesterday’s decline helped by soft labor conditions in the Conf. Board consumer survey.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 34bp Sep, 68bp Nov, 103bp Dec, 133bp Jan and 195bp June.
- Yesterday’s minutes to the Fed's discount rate meetings in July showed the directors of the NY and Chicago Feds voted to reduce the primary credit discount rate by 25bp to 5.25% (the other regional Feds voted to maintain the level at 5.50%). This is held by the regional directors rather than presidents though it's fair to say that the NY and Chicago Fed presidents (Williams and Goolsbee) are certainly on the more dovish end of the FOMC and may well have been some of the members who - in the language of the minutes - "could have supported" a rate cut at the July meeting.
- Bostic (’24 voter) speaks on the economic outlook late on at 1800ET (moderated Q&A). He said Aug 23 that “we’re close” when asked about starting to normalize policy and that it may make sense to pull forward his view on rate cuts (which had been for a single cut late in 2024 but since increasingly open to a September move) whilst warning about “passive tightening” via lower inflation.
- His further comments did however mention a range of scenarios from not cutting to 50bp cuts, and we expect further data dependent commentary ahead.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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