November 13, 2024 07:48 GMT
STIR: Less Than 60bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25
STIR
GBP STIRs Remain more hawkish than what was seen at yesterday’s settlement levels, with late Tuesday weakness in core global FI markets driving price action into the close.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 2bp more hawkish, showing 3bp of cuts for next month, 26bp through March, 44bp of cuts through June and 59bp of cuts through December ’25.
- Nearly 25bp of cuts have been removed from pricing through Dec ’25 since the Budget.
- Both domestic and global inflationary risks have factored into the hawkish move.
- SONIA futures flat to -3.5.
- BoE arch hawk Mann will speak this morning (09:45 London), although may not touch on monetary policy. Her Thursday appearance is likely to generate greater interest.
- Elsewhere, spill over from the U.S. CPI data will also be eyed.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Dec-24
4.673
-2.7
Feb-25
4.505
-19.5
Mar-25
4.436
-26.4
May-25
4.298
-40.2
Jun-25
4.257
-44.3
Aug-25
4.190
-51.0
Sep-25
4.160
-54.0
Nov-25
4.116
-58.4
Dec-25
4.106
-59.4
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