Strikes On Hezbollah & Hamas Figures Changes Security Landscape (2/3)

Two notable strikes against senior figures within militant groups opposed to Israel within the past 24 hours could have a significant impact on the security outlook for the Middle East (see 'Strikes On Hezbollah & Hamas Figures Changes Security Landscape (1/3)' 0933BST for additional detail).

Hezbollah Response

• The killing of Fuad Shukr, an adviser to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, marks the most high-profile figure within Hezbollah killed in Israeli strikes since the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israel that sparked the ongoing escalation in tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
• Hezbollah denies responsibility for the 27 July rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 youths, but both Israel and the US laid blame at the feet of the group.
• The killing of such a senior figure is unlikely to go unanswered. Hezbollah is a much larger force than Hamas, with greater weaponry both in terms of stocks and advanced technology. The exact trigger for a broader Hezbollah-Israel war (last seen in 2006) is very difficult to call.
• The strike could deter other senior figures from launching attacks. Compared to the situation of Hamas leaders in Gaza, living in tunnels under constant threat from the IDF, Hezbollah's position as an effective part of the Lebanese state means that its leaders operate largely in the open.
• A continued cycle of escalatory strikes would both risk a devastating war in Lebanon, but also raise the prospect of further attacks on Hezbollah commanders which over the past several months have proved effective in taking out senior figures.